China-Latin America Relations in the XXI Century: Partners or Rivals?

In the short run, China’s rise as a major global trade player is already creating winners and losers in Latin America and the Caribbean. On the winning side are the economies of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela with strong natural resources exporting sector based on agricultural products, minerals and petroleum. On the losing side are Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, whose exporting economies are highly integrated into North America’s industrial production chain. The question is whether Sino-Latin American relations will flourish or turn into rivalry and commercial conflict. Various scenarios are explored to determine the assumptions under which relations between the Asian giant and Brazil/MERCOSUR have the best chance to thrive and be less conflictive in the near future.