El Impacto Economico de un Acuerdo Parcial de Libre Comercio entre Colombia y Estados Unidos

The authors present a quantitative evaluation of the possible effects of a partial free trade agreement (FTA) with the US on the Colombian economy. For this purpose, a general equilibrium model is used representing the functioning of the Colombian economy in conditions of imperfect substitution between domestic and imported and exported goods,wage rigidities in the labor market, and imperfect competition in the manufacturing industries. The results show that the effects of an FTA on the Colombian economy depend critically on the degree to which the non-tariff barriers (NTBs) in place in the US will be affected. An FTA effectively reducing these NTBs will be beneficial for the poorest and will have a progressive effect on the income distribution, contrary to what several critics are arguing. However, this depends on the scope of the agreement. Specifically, an FTA that maintains the NTBs in the agricultural sector in the US would have negative effects on income and consumption of rural workers, and in general, on the Colombian agricultural sector.