U.S., Caribbean Countries Seize the Foreign Policy Moment: An Analysis of the Start to Uncertain Trump 2.0 Era Relations

Donald Trump's so-called doctrinaire approach to the management of American statecraft, from the very outset of his second term, has put a lot of distance between the U.S. and its so-called 'third border' — the Caribbean.

Yet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent two-day visit — beginning on March 26 — to three Caribbean Community (CARICOM) bloc member states, where he met with a number of Caribbean leaders, revealed a readiness to see a way forward to advance a crosscutting agenda for cooperation in the Trump 2.0 era.     

Trump's return to the U.S. presidency caused a sense of unease among such small states, raising "the prospect that, over the next four years, the Caribbean's playbook regarding its longstanding relations with the U.S. will be tested as never before." As a result of his Caribbean trip, Secretary Rubio — who has spoken of "a new era in U.S.-Caribbean relations" grounded in "shared values, heritage, culture and community" that bind the U.S. and the Caribbean — may have helped to ease such concerns.

However, this optimism was short-lived. Trump's newly unveiled sweeping global tariffs, which also impact CARICOM member states, have put a damper on this moment.                    

Research Questions and Snapshot of the Insight Brief

• In the first few weeks of Donald Trump's second term as U.S. president, how have U.S.-CARICOM relations fared?
• Now that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent two-day visit to three CARICOM bloc member states is in the history books, having faded from the headlines, are these relations off to a positive start?
• What do the dynamics in effect vis-à-vis Washington's hardening foreign policy tone qua posture — from Trump's global trade war to a raft of other Trump administration foreign policy actions — portend for these relations going forward?

In a context of intense, behind-the-scenes debate within CARICOM's foreign policy establishment over the way forward regarding U.S.-CARICOM relations, this Insight Brief peels back the curtain around what the state of play is in respect of emergent Trump 2.0 era relations.