Joint International Economics - UNU-CRIS Seminar by Justine Miller on Revisiting Trade Agreement Formation using Dynamic Network Actor Models

The seminar will take place on Friday, 04/07, between 09h00 and 10h00 in Classroom 1.4, Hoveniersberg 1st floor, and will be livestreamed via MS Teams.

Abstract. Understanding trade agreement formation is a central concern in international trade literature. A key challenge lies in accounting for the interdependence of treaties, which violates assumptions of independent observations. While existing studies use proxies and models to address endogeneity and identify key economic, political, and institutional determinants, they often focus narrowly on dyadic ties and overlook the broader network effects. Foundational work has explored theories like the domino effect and path dependence, but these models fall short of capturing today’s complex trade landscape. Recent approaches using stochastic actor-oriented models highlight network effects but lack integration of all known determinants from the international trade literature. This paper builds on these insights by applying a Dynamic Actor Network Model (DyNAM) to analyse over 600 WTO-notified treaties from 1948–2023. Combining this with dyad- and country-level data, I test political economy theories within a fully relational framework.

This is a closed event. For further information, please contact Pascale Vantorre at pvantorre@cris.unu.edu